I must confess I was seriously annoyed when the December 5th clash between top-ranked Gonzaga and No. 2 Baylor was postponed because of Covid. I had carefully picked this as the game I would begin watching college basketball and spent the week eagerly anticipating the matchup. I even remember mumbling some choice words when receiving news of the cancellation.
But now I am glad they didn’t play. As this crazy Covid-riddled season moves along, it’s looking more and more like Gonzaga and Baylor will meet in the NCAA championship. Both teams have a chance to go unbeaten, which obviously wouldn’t have happened if they had played earlier. With both teams playing at a level so deserving of a title clash, we could have our first unbeaten team since 1976 when Bobby Knight’s Indiana Hoosiers ran the table at 32-0. And if Gonzaga and Baylor are unbeaten, it would be the first time in NCAA history two teams with perfect records squared off in a title game. Surely it would be the most watched college basketball game ever. It’s no great surprise what the highest-rated game was until now. In 1979, Michigan State and Magic Johnson beat Larry Bird’s unbeaten Indiana State squad in what was the start of maybe basketball’s all-time greatest individual rivalry. Note: Gonzaga playing in the WCC is pretty much a lock to enter the NCAA’s undefeated while Baylor competing in the rugged Big 12 is not.
As mentioned in my last blog, the best teams (and frequently the unbeatens) usually do not make it to the championship game. The pressure that accompanies the NCAA’s one-and-done single elimination tournament often buries the best. But Gonzaga and Baylor are the most dominating teams since UNLV’s 1991 squad that was undefeated before losing to Duke 79-77 in the national semifinals. In that game, the Blue Devils played pretty much as well as they could. And UNLV was far from its best, succumbing to the enormous pressure that came with being a team that was so close to being labeled one of the NCAA’s best teams ever (the Runnin’ Rebels had blasted Duke by 30 in the previous year’s championship game). Still, a few plays go the other way and UNLV would have been back in the finals and who doubts with Final Four jitters out of the way the Runnin’ Rebels would have handily beaten Kansas (Duke beat the Jayhawks 72-65) in the championship game.
Simply put, UNLV had some margin for error heading into the NCAA’s and so will Gonzaga and Baylor. These two giants vying to make NCAA history compare favorably to those Runnin’ Rebels. Recently, Baylor broke UNLV’s 1991 record of 16 games starting the season with wins by eight or more points. The Bears reached 17 in style with an 83-69 win over sixth-ranked Texas. And with a little luck Gonzaga would be challenging Baylor for this record as well. The 22-0 Zags have won every game by double figures other than an early-season five-point victory over West Virginia.
Which leads us to the obvious question — who is better? Watching Gonzaga and Baylor play many times this season, I see no glaring weaknesses in either team. If they battled in an NBA best-of-seven series (a fantasy for many of us college hoop junkies), I suspect they would go the distance. They are that evenly matched.
So yes, I am a little surprised that I have yet to hear one basketball pundit who thinks Baylor is better. All the TV experts I have heard weighing in on the matter give an edge to Gonzaga, mainly because of the Zags’ blitzkrieg offense that has wiped out nearly every opponent just minutes into the game. Yet, I am going to make my case for Baylor. But before going there let’s sum up some obvious points and one not-so-significant factor that makes this potential match-up so alluring.
No basketball expert would dispute that Gonzaga is the best offensive team in the country or that Baylor is tops defensively. The Zags are also very good defensively as are the Bears on the offensive end. Both teams also have a high skill level. Other than Baylor at the center position, the team’s other nine starters, regardless of size and position, can handle the ball. It would definitely be a fun game of positionless basketball to watch if these two teams met. Case in point: centers hardly ever handle the ball but I would need way more than all my fingers to count how many times I’ve seen Gonzaga’s 6-10 pivot man Drew Timme dribbling over half court to lead the Zags’ fast break this season. Gonzaga has more NBA talent than Baylor, but since when has that mattered all that much when deciding an NCAA champion? Duke’s Coach K would vouch for that as much as anybody after watching his off-the-charts freshmen class (the NBA’s two top draft picks Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett among others) go up in flames while losing to Michigan State one game short of the Final Four in 2019. But don’t just trust Coach K. From the other side of the fence, Villanova Coach Jay Wright would agree. His 2016 and 2018 national champions were stacked with upperclassmen and there was only one NBA lottery pick on those two teams. Mikal Bridges went 10th in the 2018 draft.
So, here are five reasons (in no particular order) why I think Baylor would beat Gonzaga in a nail-bitter:
Reason Number One: Baylor has more experience and players who have been together longer. Four of the Bears’ five starters — juniors Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell and seniors MaCio Teague and Mark Vital — are back from last season. Baylor’s center position is shared by juniors Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Flo Thama. Gonzaga is clearly younger and less experienced, with a starting lineup of freshman Jalen Suggs, sophomore Timme, juniors Joel Ayayi and Andrew Nembhard and senior Corey Kispert. Granted, Suggs does not play like a freshman, as he is the Zags’ highest rated recruit ever and projected as a top four NBA draft pick. Suggs and Florida transfer Nembhard (who replaced sophomore Anton Watson in the starting lineup five games ago) are playing with the other Zags for the first time this season.
Reason Number Two: Although there is no player that either team puts on the floor that is remotely close to a liability, Baylor is deeper. The Bears’ 8th man Matthew Mayer, a versatile 6-9 wing, was a four-star recruit coming out of high school in Texas. He is good enough to score 10-15 points in an NCAA championship game if foul trouble dictated him playing more than his 14.6 minutes per game. Gonzaga’s 8th man, 6-3 freshmen guard Dominick Harris, is playing garbage time and averaging just over eight minutes per game. His best chance for 10-15 points is in the Zags’ intra-squad scrimmage next season.
Reason Number Three: Baylor has the kind of role player every coach loves having on the court while Gonzaga does not. Baylor’s 6-5, 250-pound forward Mark Vital (who resembles an NFL tight end more than a basketball player) is maybe the nation’s best role player. He does all the dirty work for the Bears and has the strength and athleticism to guard positions 1 through 4. But what probably pleases Baylor Coach Scott Drew more than anything else is that Vital has a serious edge. A coach’s definition for a player like Vital with a serious edge? Ultra-aggressive, borderline dirty; loved by his teammates, and hated by his opponents. Should these teams meet, Baylor would need every bit of Vital’s edge to offset the Zags’ awesome firepower. I can’t remember there ever being three players as Top 20 finalists for the Wooden Award (Suggs, Kispert, and Timme) on the same team and it’s almost a certainty they’ll be in the Final 10.
Reason Number Four: Baylor has the defenders to match up with all three Wooden finalists and the overall athleticism to slow up Gonzaga’s pick and roll game, which is the best I’ve ever seen at the college level. As good as Suggs is getting to the basket, Baylor’s Davion Mitchell might be the best on-the-ball defender in the country and could contain him. Suggs’ biggest weakness is his 3-point shooting — I watched him launch two air balls against BYU despite making two in that game. In my mind, truly reliable shooters do not shoot air balls. So Mitchell could play Suggs to the drive, keeping him out of the lane to slow up the Zags’ offense. Kispert has made great strides with his offensive game and is much better at getting to the basket than earlier in his career, a big reason he is averaging nearly 20 points. But Vital is athletic enough to keep Kispert from beating him off the dribble. Of course, Kispert is most dangerous as a spot-up 3-point shooter playing off the penetration of his teammates. But we’ve already determined that Mitchell has the tools to keep Suggs out of the lane and Baylor’s Butler and Teague are also good on-the-ball defenders. With the ability to contain Suggs and the Zags’ other perimeter players from making plays, Kispert’s open 3-point looks would be reduced. Like Kispert, Timme is averaging nearly 20 points and might be Gonzaga’s toughest match-up because he can score in so many different ways. Other than Iowa’s Luka Garza, no other center in the country has Timme’s footwork and moves in the post. He also is highly efficient at rolling to the basket in Gonzaga’s deadly pick and roll actions, with glue-like hands allowing him to finish at the basket. Post defenders possessing both size and athleticism are the only players with any chance of matching up with Timme. Baylor’s Tchatchoua (a very long 6-8) and Thamba (6-10) have the size and range to keep Timme under his average. Besides, they would have a combined 10 fouls allowing them to play aggressively.
Reason Number Five: Gonzaga does not have enough ball stoppers to contain Baylor unless the Bears shoot below par. Drew does not have his team running a complicated offense, as he’s basically looking to create space for his guards Butler, Mitchell, Teague and even Vital at the power forward to play off the dribble. It’s simplicity at its best because these four Bears are so good at making that happen. Butler and Mitchell are Baylor’s best NBA prospects and their offensive games make a strong case for success at the next level. Both can do what few guards are able to accomplish at the college level, scoring on 3’s, floaters and slashes to the rim while having the ability to make others better when the lane is closed down. If Gonzaga’s big man Timme has a weakness, it’s his shot blocking, so Butler and Mitchell and the other Bears would have opportunities to get to the rim. Butler is averaging a team-high 17 points and shooting 45 percent from the arc and dishing out 5.2 assists while Mitchell is averaging 13.6 points, making a team-leading 49 percent from the arc, and handing out 5.8 assists. Baylor’s other starter in its three-guard offense, Teague, is the team’s second-leading scorer averaging 14.7 points. The Bears also have an added feature in their glamorous fleet of guards, with Adam Flagler averaging 10.2 points coming off the bench and making 45 percent of his 3’s. How good is Baylor’s 3-point shooting? Consider this: the Bears lead the nation in 3-point shooting at 44 percent while the next best, Weber State, is at 41 percent. Gonzaga, meanwhile, is shooting 36 percent from the arc, even with Kispert (arguably the purest shooter in the country) hitting 46 percent. Even the Bears’ 7th leading scorer, Vital (who averages just 5.9 points), could cause Gonzaga match-up problems with Kispert guarding him. Kispert is having a terrific year but is far from a stellar on-the-ball defender and Vital is a power forward who is strong off the dribble and is a good passer creating for others. With Vital having the ability to beat Kispert off the dribble from the power forward position to create open looks for his teammates, that might just be the difference in such an evenly matched game.
So there you have it, my reasons for Baylor beating Gonzaga in a close one if we’re lucky enough to see this potentially historic match-up take place during March Madness. In my next blog, I will reveal the teams that I think have the best chance to prevent this from happening. Right now, I’m not sure there’s anybody getting closer to the Bears and the Zags but I’ll dig a little deeper. Getting ready to watch No. 3 Michigan vs. No. 4 Ohio State in a few minutes.