In This Unpredictable Season, Why Not A Surprising Final Four?

Seems to me this isn’t the year to rely on conventional wisdom when filling out your NCAA tournament bracket sheets. Might be like using conventional weapons in guerilla warfare. Going back to when Virginia was crowned national champion two years ago, college basketball has been anything but conventional, yet I see almost every basketball expert making safe predictions for this year’s tourney.

Yes, college basketball has been existing in a different universe for more than a year now. To begin with, Covid wiped out last year’s NCAA tourney. And Covid has also shut down many teams for long periods this season, meaning pretty much the entire field of 68 teams in this year’s NCAA tourney are entering with unbalanced schedules. Because of Covid we even have alternatives for this year’s event. In past years, that was called the NIT. Perhaps most peculiar is that perineal powers Duke and Kentucky will be watching on TV instead of playing. No tears shed here for either Coach K of Duke or Coach Cal of Kentucky. Coach K disappointed me earlier in the season when he used Covid as an excuse to shut down when he could have been playing. Looked to me like he was trying to get a temporary reprieve from death row and delaying an inevitable funeral for his Blue Devils. And I’m getting tired of Coach Cal’s Formula One And Done Recruiting used every year. Like Formula One Motorsports, you’re bound to crash and burn at some point.

So as we buckle up for this highly anticipated NCAA tournament, I simply refuse to go the safe route with my selections. I will use a modified version of a formula I used to predict the 2019 tourney, which shows some courage without going too crazy. Once again, I think defense will be a big factor in determining a national champion, and this time around, I am making the case that you will need both a team in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency (determined by points allowed per possession) and a Conference Player of the Year to go the distance. Three of my Final Four selections, Alabama, Gonzaga, and San Diego State (yes, the Aztecs are my bold sleeper choice), are all in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency and have Player of the Year winners in their conferences. I will make Baylor my lone exception to the rule, as I am still picking the Bears to make the Final Four despite neither being in the Top 20 in Defensive Efficiency or having a conference Player of the Year. Baylor (22-2) was unbeaten and ranked among the nation’s leaders in Defensive Efficiency until Covid shut the Bears down for two weeks late in the season, resulting in losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State and a drop to 28th in that category. The Bears’ Jared Butler would surely have been the Big 12 Player of the Year if it wasn’t for the presence of Oklahoma State’s superstar freshman Cade Cunningham, who is expected to be the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft. Besides, Baylor had another All Big 12 first team selection, Davion Mitchell, who was also the league’s Defensive Player of the Year.

So here is a region by region look at how I see the tournament unfolding:

EAST

Winner: Alabama

Not many would disagree that Michigan is the most vulnerable out of all the top seeds. The 20-4 Wolverines have lost three of their last five games and star forward Isaiah Livers has a stress fracture in his foot and is questionable for the NCAA’s. Still, even at full strength, Michigan would have its hands full with second-seeded Alabama. As the season progressed, I thought the Big 10 was overrated and the SEC was underrated. Don’t get me wrong, I still think the Big 10 was the best conference in the country from top to bottom, but I don’t think the SEC (or even the Big 12 for that matter) was far behind. Alabama was dominant in the nation’s second-rated conference. The Tide, with SEC Player of the Year Herb Jones, went 16-2 to win the SEC’s regular-season title and won the SEC’s conference tournament with three more victories. A record of 19-2 in SEC games makes you more than capable of winning a national championship. Under the outstanding leadership of SEC Coach of the Year Nate Oats, the Tide spread the floor as well as anybody and can make 3’s from anywhere, including sometimes even the half-court logo. When Bama’s shooting has failed, the defense (ranked 18th nationally in Defensive Efficiency) has stepped up to help the Tide squeeze out some close wins. Michigan is well-coached with Big 10 Coach of the Year Juwan Howard roaming the sidelines and will re-group to make the regional finals before falling to Alabama. The Wolverines’ defense (ranked 58th nationally in Defensive Efficiency) will not be strong enough to stop the Tide’s awesome 3-point shooting.

SOUTH

Winner: Baylor

In this region, I see top seeded Baylor returning to earlier season form and beating third seeded Arkansas in the regional final. The Bears are ranked second in the nation in Offensive Efficiency (determined by points scored per possession) behind Gonzaga and are the best 3-point shooting team in the tournament. Arkansas has made a quick turnaround under second year coach Eric Musselman (who did a great job at Nevada taking the Pack to the 2018 Sweet 16) and has one of the nation’s best rookies, SEC Freshman of the Year Moses Moody. But the Razorbacks will not have enough weapons to get past Baylor, which can score and defend with the best. In the second round, I am predicting Florida will upset second seeded Ohio State before falling to Arkansas in the Sweet 16. The Gators have one of the nation’s best young coaches, Mike White, and their athleticism will bother the Buckeyes just enough to squeeze out a victory. Ohio State’s go-to-guy down the stretch, Duane Washington Jr., looked shaky with his decision making in some late season games I watched.

MIDWEST

Winner: San Diego State

Yes, this choice takes some guts to make. The Aztecs are sixth seeded and are even just 3-point favorites to beat 11th seeded Syracuse in the opening round. But San Diego State has quietly become the second best program on the West Coast behind Gonzaga the past two seasons, with Mountain West Coach of the Year Brian Dutcher doing one of the best jobs in the country. It was a shame the Aztecs didn’t have a chance to play in last year’s tournament because with a 30-2 record they were on target for a one seed and had a chance to win it all. This year’s 23-4 San Diego State team isn’t far behind and has won 14 straight games heading into the NCAA’s. For starters, the Aztecs play great man-to-man defense and rank 9th nationally in Defensive Efficiency. With impeccably sound fundamentals, they remind me most of Virginia’s 2019 national championship team in bottling up opponents. Matt Michell was the Mountain West Player of the Year and can score from anywhere on the floor, and Jordan Schakel and Terrell Gomez are among the best 3-point shooters in the tournament. The Aztecs do a great job of taking care of the ball, averaging just 11.3 turnovers, and were in single digits the last four games. Still, it will not be easy for San Diego State to make the Final Four in what I view as the toughest region. I see the Aztecs barely getting by Houston in the Sweet 16 and Illinois in the regional final. Houston qualifies under my formula as Final Four material, ranking 3rd nationally in Defensive Efficiency and also having American Athletic Conference Co-Player of the Year Quentin Grimes. Illinois, meanwhile, has been as hot as any team in the country and has won 14 of 15 heading into the NCAA’s. Often, in big games it’s about match-ups and San Diego State will have the ability to guard the Illini. Illinois’ 7-0 sophomore center Kofi Cockburn has been almost impossible to stop this season but San Diego State’s 6-10 Nathan Mensah is an elite post defender capable of shutting him down. In the Mountain West title game, I watched Mensah handcuff Utah State’s star 7-0 center Neemias Queta, who might be a better NBA prospect than Cockburn. The Illini are vulnerable because their defense (53rd nationally in Defensive Efficiency) has been spotty at times. Case in point: when one of college basketball’s true gentlemen in the broadcasting booth, Bill Raftery, criticizes your pick in roll defense on more than one occasion like he did in the Illini’s overtime win over Ohio State in the Big 10 conference championship game, there is work to be done. Confession to make here: I was tempted to use my formula for picking Loyola Chicago to beat Illinois in the second round. The 24-4 Ramblers, ranked 17th in the AP’s final regular season poll, were definitely disrespected as an eight seed. Loyola Chicago is ranked 4th nationally in Defensive Efficiency and has Missouri Valley Player of the Year Cameron Krutwig, who I rated as the nation’s most underrated player in my last blog. The Ramblers might even be better than the team that made the 2018 Final Four when Krutwig was a freshman, so nobody (including top seeded Illinois) will be looking past them. If the Illini are fortunate enough to advance past Loyola Chicago, they could be looking at having to avoid another landmine in the next round. Fourth seeded Oklahoma State has beat some of the nation’s best teams down the stretch, and with Cunningham having the ability to score anywhere on the court and set up teammates for wide open looks, the Cowboys are dangerous to say the least.

WEST

Winner: Gonzaga

Gonzaga might be one of the best offensive teams in NCAA history and will have the easiest path to the Final Four. The Zags are no slouch on the defensive either, ranking 15th in the country in Defensive Efficiency. Corey Kispert was the West Coast Conference Player of the Year and Mark Few was the WCC’s Coach of the Year. The Zags also placed three other players on the WCC’s First Team All-League team, with Joel Ayayi, Drew Timme and freshman sensation Jalen Suggs joining Kispert among the league’s elite. A potential second round match-up against the winner of the Oklahoma-Missouri game could be a challenge for the Zags, as the Sooners’ Lon Kruger and the Tigers’ Cuonzo Martin are outstanding coaches who have enjoyed success in March Madness. Kruger has taken both Florida (1994) and Oklahoma (2016) to the Final Four while Martin went to the Sweet 16 with Tennessee in 2014. But don’t expect Gonzaga to struggle too much, as more drama is likely take place on the other side of the bracket. Oregon is one of my sleeper teams in the tournament, and I’m predicting the 7th seeded Ducks will upset second seeded Iowa in the second round and third seeded Kansas in the Sweet 16 for a Pacific Northwest showdown with Gonzaga in the regional final. Iowa is one of the best offensive teams in the tourney but Oregon has the weapons to score with the Hawkeyes. The Ducks have been one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 of their last 13 games since star point guard Will Richardson returned from a pre-season wrist injury. Besides, Oregon Coach Dana Altman is a master at getting his teams to peak in March Madness. As a third seed, Oregon beat top seeded Kansas to make the 2017 Final Four, and as a 12 seed, the Ducks advanced to the Sweet 16 two years ago before falling to eventual national champ Virginia, 53-49. Still, I don’t expect the Ducks to battle top ranked Gonzaga so close in this year’s tourney.

As I blog off, I humbly note that it’s called March Madness for a reason. There could be several teams that I haven’t even mentioned making a run at the Final Four!

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