The Road to the Final Four has been as close to form as any year in memory but two games on Sunday afternoon almost changed that dynamic completely.
In the South, 2nd seeded Tennessee managed to hold off a furious Iowa rally when the 10th seeded Hawkeyes rallied from 25 points down to even the score before falling, 83-77, in overtime. Later in the afternoon in the East, we witnessed 9th seeded UCF almost taking out the tournament’s top seed, Duke, before losing a 77-76 heartbreaker.
When the opening two rounds were complete, 15 Top 5 seeds had advanced to the Sweet 16, with 12th seeded Oregon the tourney’s only big surprise. The Ducks moved on to the round of 16 with an opening round 72-54 upset win over 5th seeded Wisconsin and a convincing 73-54 victory over 13th seeded Cal-Irvine, which had upset 4th seeded Kansas State in the first round.
It’s hard to imagine any shocker that could have gotten Virginia off the hook so soon after its embarrassing historic loss to 16th seeded UMBC (the only time it’s happened to a top seed in the NCAA’s) in last year’s tourney, but Tennessee gave it a serious run. If the Volunteers had fallen to Iowa, it would have been the biggest comeback in NCAA history. Thanks to a pair of forwards, Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, that are as good as any combination in the country, the Vols survived the scare. Tennessee moved onto a Sweet 16 matchup with No. 3 seeded Purdue, which demolished defending national champion Villanova 87-61 behind 42 points from guard Carsen Edwards. Tennessee advanced with Williams scoring six of his 19 points in overtime and Schofield chipping in 19.
With the Duke nailbiter, give the NCAA credit for adding drama to a product that already has as much excitement as any sporting event. It surely was no coincidence the tournament’s committee created the potential second-round matchup between UCF and Duke. UCF Coach Johnny Dawkins had been Duke Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s first big recruit back in 1982 when Coach K was fighting to keep his job. Four years later, Dawkins led the Blue Devils to the NCAA championship game and Coach K was on his way to a Hall of Fame career.
What a storyline it would have been if Dawkins’ son Aubrey, who scored 32 points against Duke, had led his father to a win over his alma mater. In an unfair twist of fate, Dawkins missed a tip in with two seconds remaining that would have given the Knights the victory. In a replay that hit the airwaves a ridiculous amount of times, the tip definitely looked like it was going in.
Two other big plays that were replayed endlessly on ESPN’s SportsCenter tortured UCF as well. With 1:49 remaining, the Knights missed an alley-oop that would have put them up by six. Later, I heard ESPN’s Seth Greenberg comment that UCF should have known time and score and pulled the ball out. I definitely disagree with Greenberg on that one. When you are facing the No. 1 team in the country, you aren’t going to win trying to run out the clock. The alley-oop pass was thrown perfectly and would have been a dunk most of the time.
The other big play came when RJ Barrett rebounded a missed Zion Williamson (32 points) free throw with 14.4 seconds remaining for the game-winning basket. On the replay, it showed the Knights were clearly not physical enough to prevent Barrett from scoring the biggest basket of his career.
Afterward, Coach K was emotional in the press conference and admitted his team was lucky to beat the team led by the man that changed the course of his coaching career. It was as if Coach K was talking like a proud father choking back the tears. Dawkins had masterminded perhaps the best game plan of the season to stop the super talented Blue Devils. Thinking way out of the box, Dawkins put his 7-6 center Tacko Fall on Duke’s freshmen point guard Trey Jones and placed him in the middle of the lane. Suddenly, Duke’s dynamic slashers Williamson and Barrett found themselves having to elevate over college basketball’s version of Mount Everest for baskets at the rim. At the same time, with all the space that was created with Fall plopping himself in the lane, the unreliable 3-point shooting Jones was challenged to make open 3’s. He made just 1-of-8 and it was game-on.
Saturday’s best game was in the East when No. 3 seed LSU escaped with a 69-67 win over 6th seeded Maryland. LSU led by 15 in the second half when Maryland Coach Mark Turgeon wisely switched his team from man-to-man defense to a 2-3 zone. Suddenly, LSU looked tentative, and the Terrapins came back to take the lead in the closing minutes. When LSU took a timeout with 10 seconds remaining and the score tied, I was wondering if Turgeon would stay in the zone or go back to his man defense. Turgeon unwisely switched back to man and LSU’s star point guard Tremont Waters made him pay for his decision. LSU set a high ball pick for Waters and coming off the screen he was able to attack Maryland’s 6-10 freshmen Jalen Smith for an angle to make a runner with two seconds remaining.
Afterward, LSU interim Coach Tony Benford said the play was designed to work against either a man or zone defense but that was being generous to Turgeon. If the Terps had been in the 2-3 zone that got them back in the game, Waters would have had a guard switching out on him on the ball screen instead of the big man Smith trying to contain him. Still, credit is due to Turgeon for the overall job he did with one of the youngest teams in the country.
Coach on a Couch Sweet 16 Predictions:
Virginia Over Oregon: Virginia still has to win at least two more and make the Final Four to put last year’s UMBC nightmare behind them. Otherwise, the only way the Wahoos can get off the hook is if Donald Trump is exonerating them. Virginia will move a step closer to redemption with an easy win over the Ducks.
Tennessee Over Purdue: This has the makings of a great game. The Vols’ threesome of Williams, Schofield and point guard Jordan Bone will be enough to get them past Edwards and Purdue in a close game.
UNC Over Auburn: UNC has been one of college basketball’s best teams the last two months and Auburn has been one of the best the past few weeks. Longevity wins out here, as the Tar Heels advance in impressive fashion.
Houston Over Kentucky: Not sure if Kentucky’s injured star sophomore forward PJ Washington will be ready but I like Houston even if he plays. The Cougars have quietly emerged as one of the best teams in the country and will get by in a close game.
Duke Over Virginia Tech: Think Virginia Tech Coach Buzz Williams will consider putting his center in the middle of the lane to guard Jones? Won’t matter if he does, as Coach K now has a few days to figure this out. The Blue Devils will move on with a convincing victory.
Michigan State Over LSU: Michigan State Coach Tom Izzo is usually at his best in March Madness and his experience on the sidelines will be more than enough to move the Spartans into the regional final vs. top-ranked Duke.
Gonzaga Over Florida State: This has the potential to be the best game in the Sweet 16. Gonzaga’s overall talent and efficiency will be enough to get past red-hot FSU.
Texas Tech Over Michigan: A matchup with the makings of a defensive classic, as both teams are among the nation’s best at locking down their opponents. The first team to 60 could win this one and the Red Raiders’ star forward Jarrett Culver will help them get there easier.