It’s not easy being a Duke fan these days. The top-ranked Blue Devils were knocked out in the East Regional Finals by No. 3 seeded Michigan State and star freshmen Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett are almost certainly headed to the NBA.
The one-and-done route is tempting for any coach at a high profile school, but it isn’t necessarily the easiest path to an NCAA championship. Since the one-and-done rule was implemented by the NBA in 2006, only two schools have successfully used that formula to capture NCAA titles. Kentucky got it done in 2012 with freshmen Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist paving the way, and Duke duplicated that feat in 2015 when first-year players Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, and Tyus Jones excelled.
This time around, however, with arguably the most talented freshmen class in NCAA history, Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils fell short. Williamson and Barrett had nothing to be ashamed of in their efforts to bring Duke another national championship.
Winston’s greatest contribution came down the stretch when he assumed the role of player-coach. Trailing 66-65 in the closing minute, Michigan State Coach Tom Izzo called a time out to set up a play. In the huddle, Winston suggested a play that hadn’t worked earlier in the game yet Izzo deferred to his captain. Coming off a high ball screen, Winston delivered a perfect pass up top to Goins for the winning 3-pointer.
Michigan State will meet Texas Tech in the Final Four in what should be a great matchup between two tough-minded teams. In the West Regional Finals, the third-seeded Red Raiders knocked off No. 1 seeded Gonzaga 75-69. “We lost to a very, very, very good basketball team,” said an obviously impressed Gonzaga Coach Mark Few afterward.
I doubt Michigan Coach John Beilein would disagree with Few’s assessment. His No. 2 seeded Wolverines were beaten handily by Texas Tech 63-44 in the round before. The Red Raiders are heading to the Final Four for the first time in school history.
Another team entering the Final Four for the first time ever on a high note is Auburn. The fifth-seeded Tigers captured the Midwest Region with upset wins over No. 1 seeded North Carolina and second-seeded Kentucky. It’s hard to determine which upset was more impressive. Auburn looked national championship level good in its 97-80 thrashing of UNC, then the Tigers beat Kentucky 77-71 in overtime after losing star big man Chuma Okeke to an ACL injury in the Carolina game. Auburn is playing with great confidence as evidenced by its 3-point shooting in the NCAA’s. More than half of the Tigers’ shots have come from the 3-point line and they are making more than 12 per game. Senior guard Bryce Brown has been Auburn’s most dangerous weapon, having connected on 17-of-36 attempts in the tournament.
Auburn will face South Region champion Virginia in the Final Four. It’s hard to imagine topping the excitement of the other regional finals but the Virginia-Purdue contest was one for the ages featuring last-second heroics. The Wahoos survived a 42-point performance by Purdue’s Carsen Edwards to prevail 80-75 in overtime. Edwards knocked down 10 three-pointers facing possibly the nation’s best defense on his way to setting an NCAA tournament record for most 3-pointers made.
Edwards would have been adding to that record total in the Final Four had it not been for a crazy play executed by Virginia that sent the game into overtime. With his team trailing 70-67, the Wahoos’ Ty Jerome (24 points and 7 assists) went to the free throw line with five seconds remaining. Jerome made the first, then intentionally missed the second, and the ball was tipped to teammate Kihei Clark in the backcourt. With the clock reading just a few precious seconds, everybody (myself included) was waiting for Virginia Coach Tony Bennett to call a timeout. But Clark surprised us by firing a long pass up the court to Mamadi Diakite, who wasted no time getting the ball out of his hands and converting a 10-foot jumper. I was seriously wondering if Virginia practices scenarios like this. I already believe Bennett is as good as any coach in the country, but if he works on situations like this, he definitely gets my vote for the best!
Coach on a Couch Final Four Predictions:
Texas Tech is playing better than anybody and my prediction is that they will win it all. I became a believer after watching the Red Raiders’ convincing win over Gonzaga. The Zags were definitely good enough to win a national championship and came up short against Texas Tech, even with the Red Raiders’ star Jarrett Culver making only 5-of-19 shots from the field.
Texas Tech will beat Michigan State in a close game featuring a great coaching matchup between Texas Tech’s up-and-comer Chris Beard and the Hall of Famer Izzo. The two coaches will be meeting for the first time. There will be plenty of other
In the other semifinal, I think Virginia will beat Auburn by double digits. The Wahoos defend the 3-point line as well as anybody and will force the Tigers into a frustrating game from the arc. The big key for Virginia will be shooting guard Kyle Guy, who broke out of a shooting slump in the second half against Purdue at just the right time. Guy made his first three treys of the half on his way to 25 points.
The championship game should be a classic between two teams that are among the best, defensively. Both teams have great coaches and All-Americans, with Texas Tech’s Culver and Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter. I give a slight edge to Texas Tech because I think Culver is a better all-around player than Hunter. Not nearly enough attention has been given to Culver’s outstanding passing abilities, and he will create just enough opportunities for his teammates to sneak out a close one against Virginia.