Mid-Major Alert: College Basketball Up For Grabs

No great teams. No great players. It doesn’t sound like much to get excited about if you’re a college hoops junkie like me.

Sure, I miss the highlights (especially the dunks) that stars Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, and Ja Morant made look so damn easy last season. It would be a struggle to make a case for any player in this year’s college game being a sure bet Hall of Famer. Yet, I’m finding this season to be more exciting than last because I’ve discovered so many teams that have a legitimate chance to win it all.

Power conferences have dominated the national stage for some time now but this could be the season a team from a mid-major conference sneaks away with a national championship. Will this be the year Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference finally wins a national title? The No. 1 ranked Zags have been knocking on the door for what seems like an eternity and are off to a 16-1 start. Should Gonzaga falter once again, it wouldn’t surprise me if No. 7 ranked San Diego State (the best team I’ve seen this season) from the Mountain West or No. 15 ranked Dayton from the Atlantic 10 cut down the nets in April.

The NCAA’s Power 5 conferences include the ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12 and the Pac 12. All other conferences are considered mid-major, but for all intents and purposes, the Big East is a power conference in basketball as well. The league has produced eight national champions (Villanova: 1985, 2016, 2018; Connecticut: 1999, 2004; Georgetown: 1984; Syracuse: 2003; and Louisville: 2013) since its inception in 1979.

The last time a team from a mid-major conference truly won a national title was UNLV in 1990 playing in the Big West. And those Runnin’ Rebels might just have been the best national champion in the past three decades. I’m not counting Connecticut’s 2014 national title team playing out of the American Athletic Conference as a legitimate mid-major, because the Huskies were one year removed from the Big East and recruited players to compete in that conference.

I’m certainly not putting San Diego State, Gonzaga or Dayton in UNLV’s class, but after watching all the Top 25 play at least once and some multiple times, all three teams are among college basketball’s best. In this imperfect season, almost every team has shown weaknesses, and I would argue that no more than a few possessions separate the entire Top 25. And after watching undefeated San Diego State dominate Utah and Utah State while showing no weaknesses, I think the Aztecs are playing a couple of possessions better than anybody else.

Heading into the New Year, six teams had already been in the No. 1 spot — Michigan State, Kentucky, Duke, Louisville, Kansas and now Gonzaga. For the record, the most teams at No. 1 was seven way back in the 1982-83 season. And, yes, there were some great players in the college game that season, with North Carolina’s Michael Jordan and Ralph Sampson dominating the competition.

In college football, you hear constantly about the “eye test,” in the playoff selection process. So here’s my eye test (as well as some statistical analysis), boldly predicting that San Diego State, Gonzaga, and Dayton will be in the Elite Eight and one will be crowned national champion. All three clubs are experienced, playing mostly upperclassmen, and don’t rely on freshmen like many others in the Top 25.

Brian Dutcher patiently waited until he was 58 to get his first head coaching opportunity at San Diego State in 2017 and what a job he’s doing to make up for lost time. For 18 seasons at San Diego State and nine at Michigan, Dutcher was an assistant to Steve Fisher. Dutcher must have enjoyed working for Fisher, because it’s hard to imagine he didn’t have other head coaching opportunities after being instrumental in the recruitment of the Fab Five at Michigan and bringing future NBA star Kawhi Leonard to San Diego State. Dutcher, the son of former successful University of Minnesota Coach Jim Dutcher, is the early favorite to win National Coach of the Year honors. Despite an even-keeled demeanor on the sidelines, Dutcher (who resembles movie star Kurt Russell) has the Aztecs playing with the intensity and focus of a national champion. And he doesn’t even have any ESPN Top 100 recruits on his roster. I have to admit it goes way behind my research capabilities, but I can’t imagine there’s ever been a team that won a national title without any Top 100 players.

San Diego State was especially impressive in its 77-68 road win over Utah State last weekend. Utah State is a very good team, with Sam Merrill one of the best all-around guards in the country and 7-0 sophomore center Neemias Queta projected as an NBA first-round draft pick. But even with 6-10 starting center Nathan Mensah sidelined with respiratory issues, San Diego State was in control from start to finish in this Mountain West battle.

One of the main reasons the 16-0 Aztecs are just one of two unbeaten teams remaining in college basketball (the other is Auburn) has been the tremendous all-around play of 6-1 junior transfer guard Malachi Flynn from Washington State. Flynn is averaging a team-high 15.9 points and 5.1 assists and making 43% of his 3-point attempts. His long-range shooting has really opened up space for San Diego State on the offensive end, and three other juniors, 6-10 Yanni Wetzel, 6-6 Matt Mitchell, and 6-6 Jordan Schakel, are also averaging double figures.

Yes, the Aztecs definitely pass my eye test with flying colors but don’t trust just me. Statistically, San Diego State is the best team in the country. The Aztecs are well balanced offensively and rank 14th in the nation in assist/turnover ratio at 1.40 and 23rd in 3-point shooting, making 38% of their attempts.

But what makes Dutcher’s team special is its stingy man-to-man defense. I would rank San Diego State just behind Virginia defensively, and the stats back that up. The Aztecs are the only team in the country to rank in the Top 15 defensively in scoring defense (5th, 56.8 points), field goal percentage defense (8th, 36.6%), and three-point field goal percentage defense (11th, 26.6%). Unlike many other college teams that switch all or many screening actions, the Aztecs have an old school mentality and fight through screens. That makes everybody accountable on the defensive end, and it’s definitely been frustrating for San Diego State opponents finding it hard to get open shots.

The Aztecs probably have their most difficult Mountain West game behind them after beating Utah State on the road and have a respectable chance to enter the NCAA tournament unbeaten. But with the power conferences usually getting the benefit of the doubt over mid-majors on Selection Sunday, San Diego State might have to remain unbeaten to earn a No. 1 seed. At No. 3, the Aztecs are ranked higher in the NET (the formula the NCAA relies on most for picking the tournament) than they are in the AP poll. But what must surely be frustrating for Dutcher is that his team was No. 1 in the NET for two weeks, and despite not losing, fell behind Kansas and Duke after beginning league play. San Diego State was impressive in non-conference play, beating four teams in the NET’s Top 45 — No. 31 BYU by 5 points, No. 32 Creighton by 31 points, No. 45 Utah by 28 points, and No. 46 Iowa by 10 points. The blowout win over Utah was especially eye-opening considering the Utes had upset Kentucky the game before. Barring a collapse, San Diego State is a team that deserves a No. 1 seed.

Gonzaga isn’t as good as last season, with front liners Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke, having gone to the NBA. The biggest difference between this season’s Zags and last year’s team that lost to eventual national runner-up Texas Tech in the Elite Eight is on the defensive end. Gonzaga has slipped in field goal percentage defense from 38% to 42% and three-point field goal percentage defense from 30% to 34%. It’s easy to figure this one out, as Clarke’s 3.16 blocks per game made it more difficult for opponents to score around the basket, and with a rim protector, the Zags were able to push out more aggressively on 3-point shooters.

Still, there’s no such thing as a down year for Gonzaga with Coach Mark Few roaming the sidelines in his low-key manner, and with the college game down some, the Zags have more than enough talent to win a title. Gonzaga has been as good as anybody offensively, even playing one of the most challenging non-conference schedules in the country, which included wins over No. 9 Oregon and No. 24 Arizona. The Zags lead the nation in scoring at 87.5 points and also rank in the Top 20 offensively in field goal percentage (4th at 50%) and three-point field goal percentage (18th, 38.4%). Sophomore Filip Petrusev, a skilled 6-11 center, is filling the void up front, with averages of 16.6 points and 8.1 rebounds. Veterans Corey Kispert (6-7 junior ) and Killian Tillie (6-10 senior) team with Petrusev to give Gonzaga one of the tallest and best frontcourts in the country, and along with graduate transfer guards 6-3 Ryan Woolridge (North Texas) and 6-4 Adam Gilder (Texas A&M), the Zags are potent offensively. All five starters are averaging in double figures, as well as 6-5 sophomore guard Joel Ayayi coming off the bench.

Look beyond the amazing job Dutcher is doing at San Diego State and the next man up for Coach of the Year honors would likely be Anthony Grant at Dayton. Reverse two close overtime losses to No. 3 Kansas and No. 25 Colorado and the 13-2 Flyers would be one of three unbeaten teams and creeping up on a No. 1 ranking.

Dayton has been one of the nation’s most surprising teams, mainly because 6-9 sophomore Obi Toppin has gone from relative obscurity (even though he was an All-Atlantic First Team selection as a freshman) to one of the best players in the country. Toppin has been scoring inside and outside for Dayton and putting up National Player of the Year numbers (19.5 points and 7.7 rebounds) with efficiency. His 62% field goal percentage is impressive, especially considering that he steps out and shoots 3’s. Toppin has been taking about 3 treys a game and is shooting 36%.

The Flyers are perhaps the best passing team in the country and are second nationally in assists at 19.6 per game, right behind Michigan State at 19.7. It helps when you have a great passing center like Toppin who can score around the basket. With teams collapsing on him in the post, he has set teammates up for wide-open shots. Averaging 83.2 points per game, the Flyers are a little more than four points below nation-leading Gonzaga, but you could argue their offense is better based on efficiency. Dayton leads the country in field goal percentage at 53%, which is pretty amazing considering 41% of the Flyers’ shots are 3’s. Dayton spreads the floor as well as anybody by putting four and sometimes even five 3-point shooters on the court at the same time and shoots 38% from the arc. 6-1 junior Jalen Crutcher has been Dayton’s second-best player, averaging 12.9 points and 5.4 assists while shooting 39% from the arc. Coming off the bench, 6-5 junior Ibi Watson is the team’s most accurate three-point shooter, connecting at a 48% clip while averaging 11.5 points.

Dayton will have a chance for a strong seeding on Selection Sunday, as having faced a difficult schedule, the Flyers are ranked 8th in the NET. The Atlantic 10 is usually one of college basketball’s most under-rated conferences, and Dayton has a chance to be the best team in the league since the 2004 St. Joseph’s team that advanced to the Elite Eight behind future NBA guards Jameer Nelson and Delonte West. No team from the Atlantic 10 has ever won a national championship, and John Calipari’s 1996 UMass team was the only one that ever made the Final Four. With college basketball perhaps more wide open than its ever been, Dayton might just have a chance to change history.