Printed out just enough bracket sheets for my NCAA pool, so it’s a good thing I filled mine out in pencil. My eraser marks equaled at least a small basket full of crumpled bracket sheets riddled with pen marks.
But let’s not kid ourselves. Filling one of these out in a serious manner is at least the equivalent of a part-time job. Lucky for us we only have to do it once a year.
Clarity often comes to me during my morning hike and sure enough, I figured it all out just before reaching the summit of Turkey Mountain early this morning. Came up with a plan of attack that I am sure (or hoping) will help me beat the competition. Returned home to put my eraser to use one last time. Still, I’m left with a nagging feeling that I might be using conventional weapons in guerilla warfare. After all, it’s called March Madness for a reason.
So here it goes. Having watched all of the better teams in the country, some on multiple occasions, all nods will go to teams that rank in my Top 5 defensively and/or possess players that make my Coach on a Couch Top Ten Team. In a few instances, I have made exceptions.
My top 5 defensive teams, in no particular order, are Duke, Houston, Michigan, Texas Tech, and Virginia. All of those teams except Michigan have players that make my Top 10 and Duke is the only team with two. Here are my Top 10 players, once again in no particular order: Duke’s Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett; Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver; Gonzaga’s Rui Hachimura; Iowa State’s Marial Shayok; Kansas’ Dedric Lawson; Murray State’s Ja Morant; Michigan State’s Cassius Winston; Houston’s Corey Davis, and Virginia’s De’Andre Hunter.
According to my system, top-seeded Virginia has the cleanest path to the Final Four coming out of the South Region, with no opponents in my Top 5 defensively and no Top 10 players. The Wahoos will prevail over No. 2 seeded Tennessee in the regional final but it will not be easy. If I was compiling a list of my Top 20 players, Tennessee would have three — forwards Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield and point guard Jordan Bone. Besides, the Volunteers are one of the most experienced teams in the tournament and play exceptionally well together.
I have six upsets (mostly small) predicted in the opening round of the tournament, including three in the South. Defending NCAA champion Villanova, a No. 6 seed, is nowhere near the team it was last season and will fall to an 11th seeded St. Mary’s team that is riding a high after ending No. 1 ranked Gonzaga’s 21 game winning streak in the WCC championship. The Gaels were impressive in a 60-47 victory over the Zags. Elsewhere, I have high-scoring No. 10 seed Iowa beating No. 7 seed Cincinnati. Cincy plays a stingy matchup zone but is challenged offensively and will not score enough points to beat the Hawkeyes. No. 8 seed Ole Miss is favored by two over No. 9 seed Oklahoma but I like the Sooners’ coaching experience with Lon Kruger, which will get them into the second round to face Virginia.
In the East Region, I have Duke (definitely the most talented team in the tournament) making the Final Four behind super freshmen Williamson and Barrett. The Blue Devils will face Michigan State in the regional final and have the defensive versatility to shut down the Spartans’ star point guard Winston. The Blue Devils’ athletic ability enabling them to switch all ball screens will neutralize Michigan State’s best offensive weapon. Winston’s masterful ability (best in the country) coming off ball screens has dumfounded opponents the entire season but Duke’s switches will keep him off balance to help the Blue Devils advance.
I stay the course in the Midwest Region, with one small adjustment and none impacting my Final Four prediction. No. 3 seeded Houston is the only team with a Top 5 defense and a Top 10 player in Davis, who has been on a tear recently and scored a career-high 31 at Cincy in the last game of the regular season. The Cougars are athletic and tough-minded on the defensive end and shoot 3-pointers as well as anybody with Davis and Armoni Brooks making them up at a rapid pace. But I do worry about Houston’s potential second-round matchup with sixth-seeded Iowa State. The Cyclones have Shayok and tons of scoring punch and would be my sleeper team to make the Final Four.
I do have North Carolina defying the system (jeez, after all, the Heels are the No. 1 seed!) and getting past 4th seeded Kansas, with Top 10 player Dedric Lawson, before falling to Houston in the regional final. The Tar Heels have been playing great the past few months to gain the top seed and have plenty of star power. North Carolina’s Cam Johnson was a first-team All-ACC selection and Luke Maye and Coby White were second teamers.
In this region, I have No. 9 Washington beating 8th seeded Utah State in a small upset and No. 10 Seton Hall taking down 7th seeded Wofford. The Terriers have won 20 in a row and will fall for the first time since losing to Mississippi State on December 19th. Seton Hall’s superior athleticism will pose problems for the slower Terriers, who struggled to get past UNCG in the Southern Conference Championship.
Out West, finally, I have No. 1 seeded Gonzaga beating the system and making the Final Four with a win over 3rd seeded Texas Tech in the regional final. Texas Tech is one of my five best defensive teams and has Culver, who is a tremendous small forward. In a holiday season loss to Duke at Madison Square Garden, Culver was clearly the best player on the floor squaring off against the Blue Devils’ Williamson and Barrett. In a defensive battle, Texas Tech will take advantage of Culver’s offensive abilities to beat second-seeded Michigan before falling to Gonzaga. The Zags are extremely efficient on both ends of the floor and have Top 10 player Hachimura and another star forward Brandon Clarke who isn’t far behind.
My one upset in the West has No. 10 seed Florida topping 7th seeded Nevada. Florida was playing its best basketball down the stretch and lost a close one to super hot Auburn on a questionable non-call in the SEC semifinals. Nevada has struggled in recent weeks and fell to San Diego State for the second time in a month in the Mountain West semifinals. I must confess I was tempted to pick No. 12 Murray State to beat 5th seeded Marquette, as the Racers’ point guard Ja Morant is the most exciting player in the tournament to watch along with Williamson. But Marquette’s Markus Howard is one of the best scorers in the country and has put up more than 40 points three times this season. I watched Howard play one of his worst games of the season in a loss to St. John’s, otherwise he probably would have made my Top 10.
In the Final Four, I remain committed to the system. In a rematch of a thriller in the championship game of the Maui Invitational when Gonzaga beat then No. 1 ranked Duke, the Blue Devils’ defense and star freshmen will take them to the title game with a close win over the Zags. In the other semifinal, Virginia will sneak past Houston. With both teams having a Top 5 defense and one Top 10 player, the next best player on the floor is the Wahoos’ Ty Jerome, who will make the difference from the point guard position.
The championship game will feature the third meeting between Duke and Virginia. Duke won the previous two contests, including at Virginia when the Blue Devils shot an uncharacteristic 13-of-21 from the 3-point line. Here I will ignore the cliche that it’s tough to beat a good team three times in a row and go with the young and ultra-talented Dukies. One and doners Williamson and Barrett will be heading to the NBA as national champions.
Super-agree with your comments about Florida and, in fact, they did take down a talented Nevada team. The reference of the non-call in the Gators loss to Auburn could read something like “…. that cat should have had 7 FT’s…. one for the foul on the 3 pointer and 2 1n1’s for the other two guys who nailed him on that shot”. Clearly, I am not over it : }